Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$64,947 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
55 %+
31%
60 % ou plus
18%
65 %+
16%
70 %+
8%
$64,947 Vol.
55 %+
$41,025 Vol.
31%
60 % ou plus
$13,616 Vol.
18%
65 %+
$8,420 Vol.
16%
70 %+
$1,887 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$64,947Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$64,947Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le score le plus élevé obtenu à l’Ultime Exam de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 60% ou plus ?
45%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle OpenAI lors du Dernier Examen de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
77%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Anthropic Claude à l'examen final de l'humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
90%
Oui
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