Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$71,625 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
60% ou plus
52%
65 %+
29%
70 %+
15%
75 %+
11%
80 %+
7%
90 %+
5%
$71,625 Vol.
60% ou plus
$40,843 Vol.
52%
65 %+
$16,633 Vol.
29%
70 %+
$6,392 Vol.
15%
75 %+
$3,602 Vol.
11%
80 %+
$1,710 Vol.
7%
90 %+
$2,445 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Marché ouvert : Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$71,625Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$71,625Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jul 23, 2026, 6:41 PM ETSource de résolution
https://agi.safe.ai/Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 releases have driven the current HLE frontier to 65% and 64.7% respectively on verified leaderboards as of mid-September 2026, reflecting gains from enhanced reasoning architectures, chain-of-thought scaling, and targeted training on expert-level multi-step problems. This positions Anthropic ahead of Meta’s Muse Spark series at 62% and OpenAI’s GPT-5.4 variants near 58-59%, underscoring competitive pressure across labs to close the gap on graduate-level knowledge and calibration benchmarks. With three-plus months remaining, further gains hinge on new model drops, tool-augmented inference, and refinements to HLE-Verified subsets, though the benchmark’s design continues to limit rapid saturation compared with earlier tests like MMLU. Trader sentiment tracks these incremental capability jumps closely amid ongoing uncertainty around exact year-end resolution criteria.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle OpenAI lors du Dernier Examen de l’Humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
77%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Meta à l’ultime examen de l’humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
35%
Oui
Le score le plus élevé obtenu par un modèle Anthropic Claude à l'examen final de l'humanité en 2026 sera-t-il de 55 % ou plus ?
81%
Oui
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes