**Jeddah’s coastal Red Sea location and midsummer climatology position daily highs near or above 38°C as the most likely outcomes for July 5.** Persistent subtropical high pressure, strong solar heating, and typically clear skies support peak temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s °C, consistent with July averages of 37–39°C (locally reaching 41–43°C in hotter inland spells). Sea breezes and higher humidity often moderate extremes compared with interior sites, creating the spread traders reflect in the market. Recent model runs and observed highs in the mid-30s to low-40s range over the past few days have kept the 39°C+ outcome at 45% implied probability, with 38°C as the next most favored single bin. Short-range forecast updates, wind shifts, or unexpected cloud cover remain the key variables that could shift probabilities before resolution.