Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLowest temperature in Paris on July 5?
Lowest temperature in Paris on July 5?
16°C 37%
17°C 33%
15°C 18%
14°C or below 7.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juil. 2026
14°C or below
7%
15°C
18%
16°C
37%
17°C
30%
18°C
7%
19°C
4%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
16°C 37%
17°C 33%
15°C 18%
14°C or below 7.5%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
5 juil. 2026
14°C or below
$27 Vol.
7%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$59 Vol.
37%
17°C
$44 Vol.
30%
18°C
$200 Vol.
7%
19°C
$300 Vol.
4%
20°C
$77 Vol.
1%
21°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$127 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$294 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$329 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,584Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,584Date de fin
5 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from European agencies indicate variable overnight radiative cooling in Paris for July 4–5, with low temperatures likely ranging 15–17°C depending on cloud cover and wind. Following June’s extreme heatwave, which elevated baseline soil and urban heat storage, current conditions favor moderate moderation rather than sharp drops, keeping the market tightly bunched around typical early-July climatology. Key variables include Atlantic flow strength and potential for clear skies enhancing cooling versus lingering moisture trapping heat, with ensemble spreads explaining the near-equal implied probabilities for 15°C, 16°C, and 17°C. Updated Météo-France guidance expected within 48 hours could shift resolution odds as the event window approaches.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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