**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJustin Aguiar condamné pour agression sexuelle avant 2027 ?
Justin Aguiar condamné pour agression sexuelle avant 2027 ?
Oui
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
31% chance
$52,562 Vol.
$52,562 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
Volume
$52,562Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$52,562Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETRésolveur
0x65070BE91...**The high market-implied probability favoring “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 stems primarily from the slow pace of Ontario’s criminal justice system and the early procedural stage of the single active charge.** Aguiar, a Toronto content creator and dating coach known online as Justin Marc, was arrested November 20, 2025, and charged with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident; his initial court appearance occurred January 14, 2026. Prior similar charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, and no trial date has been set as of mid-2026. Canadian sexual assault cases frequently face lengthy delays due to court backlogs, disclosure processes, and scheduling. The resolution criteria further tilt toward “No” by treating dismissals, withdrawn charges, or non-guilt pleas as negative outcomes, reinforcing trader consensus around extended timelines and procedural uncertainty.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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