Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, after which the official @khamenei_ir account shifted exclusively to reposting archival statements rather than issuing new content. Trader consensus for under five posts in the August 14–21 window reflects this established low-frequency pattern, with activity typically limited to occasional religious commemorations such as those tied to Arbaeen. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic Iranian developments in the immediate preceding weeks have created fresh catalysts for higher volume. Comparable prior periods show similar restraint from successor accounts linked to Mojtaba Khamenei, reinforcing the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourKhamenei # posts 14 août - 21 août 2026 ?
Khamenei # posts 14 août - 21 août 2026 ?
<5 58%
5-9 23%
10-14 14%
20-24 5.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
<5
58%
5-9
23%
10-14
14%
15-19
5%
20-24
5%
25-29
5%
30-34
5%
35-39
2%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 58%
5-9 23%
10-14 14%
20-24 5.3%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
21 août 2026
<5
$2,317 Vol.
58%
5-9
$64 Vol.
23%
10-14
$104 Vol.
14%
15-19
$40 Vol.
5%
20-24
$30 Vol.
5%
25-29
$30 Vol.
5%
30-34
$30 Vol.
5%
35-39
$40 Vol.
2%
40-44
$72 Vol.
1%
45-49
$52 Vol.
1%
50-54
$42 Vol.
1%
55-59
$42 Vol.
1%
60+
$42 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 14, 12:00 PM ET and August 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, after which the official @khamenei_ir account shifted exclusively to reposting archival statements rather than issuing new content. Trader consensus for under five posts in the August 14–21 window reflects this established low-frequency pattern, with activity typically limited to occasional religious commemorations such as those tied to Arbaeen. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic Iranian developments in the immediate preceding weeks have created fresh catalysts for higher volume. Comparable prior periods show similar restraint from successor accounts linked to Mojtaba Khamenei, reinforcing the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 14, 12:00 PM ET and August 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$2,905Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 14, 12:00 PM ET and August 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, after which the official @khamenei_ir account shifted exclusively to reposting archival statements rather than issuing new content. Trader consensus for under five posts in the August 14–21 window reflects this established low-frequency pattern, with activity typically limited to occasional religious commemorations such as those tied to Arbaeen. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic Iranian developments in the immediate preceding weeks have created fresh catalysts for higher volume. Comparable prior periods show similar restraint from successor accounts linked to Mojtaba Khamenei, reinforcing the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 14, 12:00 PM ET and August 21, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$2,905Date de fin
21 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ETSource de résolution
https://x.com/khamenei_irResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes, after which the official @khamenei_ir account shifted exclusively to reposting archival statements rather than issuing new content. Trader consensus for under five posts in the August 14–21 window reflects this established low-frequency pattern, with activity typically limited to occasional religious commemorations such as those tied to Arbaeen. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic Iranian developments in the immediate preceding weeks have created fresh catalysts for higher volume. Comparable prior periods show similar restraint from successor accounts linked to Mojtaba Khamenei, reinforcing the implied probability reflected in current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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