**President Lee Jae-myung, who took office in June 2025 following former President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment and a snap election, benefits from constitutional immunity under Article 84, which shields sitting presidents from criminal prosecution for most offenses (except insurrection or treason).** His pre-presidency trials—including election law violations, Daejang-dong development allegations, and related corruption cases—have been suspended or indefinitely delayed by courts, consistent with historical precedent and the National Court Administration’s guidance that judges determine suspension on a case-by-case basis. Recent actions reinforce this protection. The ruling Democratic Party advanced criminal procedure reforms limiting prosecutors’ direct investigative powers, which took effect in October 2026 after Lee declined to veto; critics from the opposition People Power Party described these as measures to shield him from pending cases. Police have dismissed specific complaints against him, such as alleged North Korea remittances, for insufficient evidence. No arrest warrants have been issued or seriously pursued since his inauguration, and his administration has prioritized governance, local election gains in June 2026, and policy initiatives over legal battles. With roughly four months remaining until 2027 and Lee’s term extending to 2030, traders see negligible near-term risk of arrest. The 92.8% “No” probability aligns with the structural barriers of presidential immunity, procedural delays, and the absence of new catalysts that could override these protections in the resolution window.