South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, who took office in June 2025 after Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment and removal, faces no active constitutional process for early removal as of mid-August 2026. Institutional safeguards, including the fixed five-year term and the two-thirds National Assembly threshold required for impeachment, combine with the Democratic Party’s supermajority to make legislative action against him improbable. Recent local elections in June 2026 delivered Democratic victories in most metropolitan and provincial races, reinforcing legislative alignment despite modest approval-rating softening and isolated protests over ballot shortages. Ongoing constitutional reform discussions favoring four-year terms with possible re-election remain at the proposal stage and have not altered the current term structure or triggered removal mechanisms. Absent major scandals, widespread unrest, or cross-party defections, trader consensus reflected in the 91 percent probability for “No” rests on these structural and political stabilizers.