South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces multiple prior indictments on corruption and election-related charges, yet all five criminal trials against him were suspended in July 2025 shortly after he assumed office. This procedural halt, combined with ongoing Democratic Party efforts in 2026 to appoint a special counsel empowered to dismiss the cases, has sharply lowered the risk of detention before 2027. Traders assign an 88.9 percent probability to no arrest occurring, reflecting the institutional protections afforded sitting presidents and the absence of any recent court rulings or legislative moves that would reopen active proceedings. Historical precedent shows South Korean leaders rarely face arrest mid-term absent extraordinary political upheaval, further anchoring current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?
Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?
Oui
$318,859 Vol.
$318,859 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$318,859 Vol.
$318,859 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces multiple prior indictments on corruption and election-related charges, yet all five criminal trials against him were suspended in July 2025 shortly after he assumed office. This procedural halt, combined with ongoing Democratic Party efforts in 2026 to appoint a special counsel empowered to dismiss the cases, has sharply lowered the risk of detention before 2027. Traders assign an 88.9 percent probability to no arrest occurring, reflecting the institutional protections afforded sitting presidents and the absence of any recent court rulings or legislative moves that would reopen active proceedings. Historical precedent shows South Korean leaders rarely face arrest mid-term absent extraordinary political upheaval, further anchoring current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$318,859Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces multiple prior indictments on corruption and election-related charges, yet all five criminal trials against him were suspended in July 2025 shortly after he assumed office. This procedural halt, combined with ongoing Democratic Party efforts in 2026 to appoint a special counsel empowered to dismiss the cases, has sharply lowered the risk of detention before 2027. Traders assign an 88.9 percent probability to no arrest occurring, reflecting the institutional protections afforded sitting presidents and the absence of any recent court rulings or legislative moves that would reopen active proceedings. Historical precedent shows South Korean leaders rarely face arrest mid-term absent extraordinary political upheaval, further anchoring current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$318,859Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung faces multiple prior indictments on corruption and election-related charges, yet all five criminal trials against him were suspended in July 2025 shortly after he assumed office. This procedural halt, combined with ongoing Democratic Party efforts in 2026 to appoint a special counsel empowered to dismiss the cases, has sharply lowered the risk of detention before 2027. Traders assign an 88.9 percent probability to no arrest occurring, reflecting the institutional protections afforded sitting presidents and the absence of any recent court rulings or legislative moves that would reopen active proceedings. Historical precedent shows South Korean leaders rarely face arrest mid-term absent extraordinary political upheaval, further anchoring current market pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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