Recent forecasts from PAGASA and global models highlight the southwest monsoon driving persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and light winds over Metro Manila, which limit daytime heating while keeping overnight radiative cooling modest. This setup supports minimum temperatures near the 25–26°C seasonal norm for mid-September, with most guidance showing lows no lower than 24–26°C amid high humidity. Trader sentiment remains closely split because small shifts in precipitation timing, cloud thickness, or wind direction could nudge the exact low across the 24–26°C thresholds, while the slim odds of 20°C or below reflect historical rarity under current monsoon conditions and the low probability of stronger cooling. Updated official forecasts and higher-resolution model runs expected in the next 24–48 hours represent the key near-term catalysts.