**Recent short-range forecasts position Shanghai's overnight low on August 3 near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market's heaviest volume on those two outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble model runs from late July show a persistent warm, humid subtropical air mass with minimal nocturnal cooling, producing daily minima in the upper 20s Celsius. Time-and-date and AccuWeather outlooks issued around July 30–31 list an 80 °F (26.7 °C) low for August 3, with adjacent days at 82 °F (27.8 °C), reflecting typical early-August climatology of 25–28 °C overnight lows under high humidity (70–80 %) and light winds. No major cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling event is indicated in current model consensus, keeping probabilities for 26 °C or below low. Light rain or cloud cover expected in the period further limits temperature drops. Traders are therefore concentrating capital on the narrow 27–28 °C band that matches both the latest dynamical guidance and historical early-August statistics for the Shanghai metro area. Updated model runs or a surprise clear night could still nudge the distribution, but the current scientific picture supports the observed market weighting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Shanghai le 3 août ?
La température la plus basse à Shanghai le 3 août ?
28°C 51%
27°C 30%
29°C 9%
23°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C ou moins
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
3%
25°C
5%
26°C
8%
27°C
30%
28°C
53%
29°C
9%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C ou plus
<1%
28°C 51%
27°C 30%
29°C 9%
23°C 7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 août 2026
22°C ou moins
$52 Vol.
1%
23°C
$52 Vol.
7%
24°C
$42 Vol.
3%
25°C
$37 Vol.
5%
26°C
$133 Vol.
8%
27°C
$112 Vol.
30%
28°C
$195 Vol.
53%
29°C
$20 Vol.
9%
30°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
32°C ou plus
$52 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-range forecasts position Shanghai's overnight low on August 3 near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market's heaviest volume on those two outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble model runs from late July show a persistent warm, humid subtropical air mass with minimal nocturnal cooling, producing daily minima in the upper 20s Celsius. Time-and-date and AccuWeather outlooks issued around July 30–31 list an 80 °F (26.7 °C) low for August 3, with adjacent days at 82 °F (27.8 °C), reflecting typical early-August climatology of 25–28 °C overnight lows under high humidity (70–80 %) and light winds.
No major cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling event is indicated in current model consensus, keeping probabilities for 26 °C or below low. Light rain or cloud cover expected in the period further limits temperature drops. Traders are therefore concentrating capital on the narrow 27–28 °C band that matches both the latest dynamical guidance and historical early-August statistics for the Shanghai metro area. Updated model runs or a surprise clear night could still nudge the distribution, but the current scientific picture supports the observed market weighting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$787Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent short-range forecasts position Shanghai's overnight low on August 3 near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market's heaviest volume on those two outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble model runs from late July show a persistent warm, humid subtropical air mass with minimal nocturnal cooling, producing daily minima in the upper 20s Celsius. Time-and-date and AccuWeather outlooks issued around July 30–31 list an 80 °F (26.7 °C) low for August 3, with adjacent days at 82 °F (27.8 °C), reflecting typical early-August climatology of 25–28 °C overnight lows under high humidity (70–80 %) and light winds.
No major cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling event is indicated in current model consensus, keeping probabilities for 26 °C or below low. Light rain or cloud cover expected in the period further limits temperature drops. Traders are therefore concentrating capital on the narrow 27–28 °C band that matches both the latest dynamical guidance and historical early-August statistics for the Shanghai metro area. Updated model runs or a surprise clear night could still nudge the distribution, but the current scientific picture supports the observed market weighting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$787Date de fin
3 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent short-range forecasts position Shanghai's overnight low on August 3 near 27–28 °C, aligning with the market's heaviest volume on those two outcomes.** Official guidance and ensemble model runs from late July show a persistent warm, humid subtropical air mass with minimal nocturnal cooling, producing daily minima in the upper 20s Celsius. Time-and-date and AccuWeather outlooks issued around July 30–31 list an 80 °F (26.7 °C) low for August 3, with adjacent days at 82 °F (27.8 °C), reflecting typical early-August climatology of 25–28 °C overnight lows under high humidity (70–80 %) and light winds. No major cold-air intrusion or clear-sky radiative cooling event is indicated in current model consensus, keeping probabilities for 26 °C or below low. Light rain or cloud cover expected in the period further limits temperature drops. Traders are therefore concentrating capital on the narrow 27–28 °C band that matches both the latest dynamical guidance and historical early-August statistics for the Shanghai metro area. Updated model runs or a surprise clear night could still nudge the distribution, but the current scientific picture supports the observed market weighting.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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