Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated short-term signals for a magnitude 8+ megaquake by late July, with global activity in June limited to events like the M7.8 Philippines quake and scattered M6+ tremors that fall well below megathrust thresholds. The 50% market balance stems from fundamental scientific limits: recurrence intervals for Cascadia or Nankai-style events span centuries, and no reliable precursors exist for precise timing within weeks. Key uncertainties include aftershock triggering potential, fluid migration effects in subduction zones, and divergence among seismic models. New USGS data releases or detected foreshock sequences in high-risk regions could rapidly shift trader consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMegaquake by July 31?
Megaquake by July 31?
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 juil. 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated short-term signals for a magnitude 8+ megaquake by late July, with global activity in June limited to events like the M7.8 Philippines quake and scattered M6+ tremors that fall well below megathrust thresholds. The 50% market balance stems from fundamental scientific limits: recurrence intervals for Cascadia or Nankai-style events span centuries, and no reliable precursors exist for precise timing within weeks. Key uncertainties include aftershock triggering potential, fluid migration effects in subduction zones, and divergence among seismic models. New USGS data releases or detected foreshock sequences in high-risk regions could rapidly shift trader consensus before resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Marché ouvert : Jun 17, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volume
$3,288Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated short-term signals for a magnitude 8+ megaquake by late July, with global activity in June limited to events like the M7.8 Philippines quake and scattered M6+ tremors that fall well below megathrust thresholds. The 50% market balance stems from fundamental scientific limits: recurrence intervals for Cascadia or Nankai-style events span centuries, and no reliable precursors exist for precise timing within weeks. Key uncertainties include aftershock triggering potential, fluid migration effects in subduction zones, and divergence among seismic models. New USGS data releases or detected foreshock sequences in high-risk regions could rapidly shift trader consensus before resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$3,288Date de fin
31 juil. 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 17, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated short-term signals for a magnitude 8+ megaquake by late July, with global activity in June limited to events like the M7.8 Philippines quake and scattered M6+ tremors that fall well below megathrust thresholds. The 50% market balance stems from fundamental scientific limits: recurrence intervals for Cascadia or Nankai-style events span centuries, and no reliable precursors exist for precise timing within weeks. Key uncertainties include aftershock triggering potential, fluid migration effects in subduction zones, and divergence among seismic models. New USGS data releases or detected foreshock sequences in high-risk regions could rapidly shift trader consensus before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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