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Élections·Royaume-Uni

Next First Minister of Scotland?

icon for Next First Minister of Scotland?
Élections·Royaume-Uni

Next First Minister of Scotland?

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

John Swinney 99.6%

Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%

Malcolm Offord <1%

Russell Findlay <1%

Polymarket

$11,060 Vol.

icon for John Swinney

John Swinney

$3,218 Vol.

100%

icon for Alex Cole-Hamilton

Alex Cole-Hamilton

$1,346 Vol.

1%

icon for Malcolm Offord

Malcolm Offord

$912 Vol.

1%

icon for Russell Findlay

Russell Findlay

$2,554 Vol.

1%

icon for Anas Sarwar

Anas Sarwar

$1,945 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ross Greer

Ross Greer

$515 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gillian Mackay

Gillian Mackay

$570 Vol.

<1%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney's commanding position in the market stems from the Scottish National Party's strong showing in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, which left the party with the most seats and positioned its leader for straightforward nomination as First Minister. Swinney, who assumed the role in 2024 following Humza Yousaf's resignation, has since consolidated internal party support and outlined priorities such as a Section 30 order for an independence referendum and child poverty initiatives. With the SNP short of an outright majority, trader consensus reflects the limited barriers to securing the necessary parliamentary backing for confirmation in Holyrood. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow, primarily involving an unexpected failure to win a vote of confidence or a last-minute leadership challenge within the SNP caucus.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney's commanding position in the market stems from the Scottish National Party's strong showing in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, which left the party with the most seats and positioned its leader for straightforward nomination as First Minister. Swinney, who assumed the role in 2024 following Humza Yousaf's resignation, has since consolidated internal party support and outlined priorities such as a Section 30 order for an independence referendum and child poverty initiatives. With the SNP short of an outright majority, trader consensus reflects the limited barriers to securing the necessary parliamentary backing for confirmation in Holyrood. Scenarios that could shift probabilities remain narrow, primarily involving an unexpected failure to win a vote of confidence or a last-minute leadership challenge within the SNP caucus.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.

To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$11,060
Date de fin
7 mai 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Next First Minister of Scotland? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « John Swinney » à 100%, suivi de « Alex Cole-Hamilton » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Next First Minister of Scotland? » a généré $11.1K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Apr 23, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Next First Minister of Scotland? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Next First Minister of Scotland? » est « John Swinney » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Alex Cole-Hamilton » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Next First Minister of Scotland? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.