Recent polling averages placed incumbent Lindsey Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against main challenger Mark Lynch in the low-to-mid 30s, producing projected first-round margins clustered between 10 and 30 points and leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters. Late surveys from Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage showed Graham hovering near or just above 50 percent, while earlier Citadel results indicated a narrower lead, sustaining uncertainty over whether the margin would settle in the 20–30 or 30–40 point range. High spending by the Lynch campaign and the absence of a clear consolidation behind Graham kept the contest competitive into election day, with traders assigning comparable probabilities to those two brackets alongside the possibility of an alternative result.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPrimaire républicaine du Sénat de Caroline du Sud : Marge de victoire du premier tour
Primaire républicaine du Sénat de Caroline du Sud : Marge de victoire du premier tour
Graham 20–30 % 92%
Graham 10–20 % 6%
Graham 40–50 % 5.0%
Graham <10 % 1.6%
$7,277 Vol.
$7,277 Vol.
9 juin 2026
Graham 50%+
<1%
Graham 40–50 %
5%
Graham 30–40 %
31%
Graham 20–30 %
92%
Graham 10–20 %
6%
Graham <10 %
2%
Victoire de Lynch
1%
Graham 20–30 % 92%
Graham 10–20 % 6%
Graham 40–50 % 5.0%
Graham <10 % 1.6%
$7,277 Vol.
$7,277 Vol.
9 juin 2026
Graham 50%+
$1,361 Vol.
<1%
Graham 40–50 %
$1,522 Vol.
5%
Graham 30–40 %
$246 Vol.
31%
Graham 20–30 %
$835 Vol.
92%
Graham 10–20 %
$972 Vol.
6%
Graham <10 %
$1,749 Vol.
2%
Victoire de Lynch
$592 Vol.
1%
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages placed incumbent Lindsey Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against main challenger Mark Lynch in the low-to-mid 30s, producing projected first-round margins clustered between 10 and 30 points and leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters. Late surveys from Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage showed Graham hovering near or just above 50 percent, while earlier Citadel results indicated a narrower lead, sustaining uncertainty over whether the margin would settle in the 20–30 or 30–40 point range. High spending by the Lynch campaign and the absence of a clear consolidation behind Graham kept the contest competitive into election day, with traders assigning comparable probabilities to those two brackets alongside the possibility of an alternative result.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Marché ouvert : Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$7,277Date de fin
9 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling averages placed incumbent Lindsey Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against main challenger Mark Lynch in the low-to-mid 30s, producing projected first-round margins clustered between 10 and 30 points and leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters. Late surveys from Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage showed Graham hovering near or just above 50 percent, while earlier Citadel results indicated a narrower lead, sustaining uncertainty over whether the margin would settle in the 20–30 or 30–40 point range. High spending by the Lynch campaign and the absence of a clear consolidation behind Graham kept the contest competitive into election day, with traders assigning comparable probabilities to those two brackets alongside the possibility of an alternative result.
Primary elections in South Carolina are scheduled to be held on June 9, 2026, with a runoff election scheduled to be held on June 23, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Republican Primary.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$7,277Date de fin
9 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Jun 8, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages placed incumbent Lindsey Graham in the mid-to-high 40s against main challenger Mark Lynch in the low-to-mid 30s, producing projected first-round margins clustered between 10 and 30 points and leaving the outcome sensitive to turnout among Republican primary voters. Late surveys from Trafalgar and InsiderAdvantage showed Graham hovering near or just above 50 percent, while earlier Citadel results indicated a narrower lead, sustaining uncertainty over whether the margin would settle in the 20–30 or 30–40 point range. High spending by the Lynch campaign and the absence of a clear consolidation behind Graham kept the contest competitive into election day, with traders assigning comparable probabilities to those two brackets alongside the possibility of an alternative result.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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