Spider-Man: Brand New Day enters its fourth weekend with strong momentum from a record-setting $70 million third frame, the second-best ever behind only The Force Awakens, pushing its domestic total past $786 million after just 17 days. Traders are pricing the most likely range at 35-38 million (49.5% implied probability), reflecting typical 45-55% drops for event films at this stage combined with back-to-school timing that historically softens midweek and family attendance. The film's exceptional legs—already ahead of prior MCU benchmarks—support resistance to steeper declines, while limited new competition and sustained audience interest keep 38-41 million in play. Next tracking updates and early Friday estimates will likely refine these ranges ahead of the August 21-23 frame.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour"Spider-Man : Brand New Day" 4ème box-office du week-end
"Spider-Man : Brand New Day" 4ème box-office du week-end
35-38m 50%
38-41m 38%
41-44M 37%
<35m 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
<35m
35%
35-38m
50%
38-41m
38%
41-44M
37%
44M+
18%
35-38m 50%
38-41m 38%
41-44M 37%
<35m 35%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
23 août 2026
<35m
$0 Vol.
35%
35-38m
$0 Vol.
50%
38-41m
$0 Vol.
38%
41-44M
$0 Vol.
37%
44M+
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day enters its fourth weekend with strong momentum from a record-setting $70 million third frame, the second-best ever behind only The Force Awakens, pushing its domestic total past $786 million after just 17 days. Traders are pricing the most likely range at 35-38 million (49.5% implied probability), reflecting typical 45-55% drops for event films at this stage combined with back-to-school timing that historically softens midweek and family attendance. The film's exceptional legs—already ahead of prior MCU benchmarks—support resistance to steeper declines, while limited new competition and sustained audience interest keep 38-41 million in play. Next tracking updates and early Friday estimates will likely refine these ranges ahead of the August 21-23 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Spider-Man: Brand New Day enters its fourth weekend with strong momentum from a record-setting $70 million third frame, the second-best ever behind only The Force Awakens, pushing its domestic total past $786 million after just 17 days. Traders are pricing the most likely range at 35-38 million (49.5% implied probability), reflecting typical 45-55% drops for event films at this stage combined with back-to-school timing that historically softens midweek and family attendance. The film's exceptional legs—already ahead of prior MCU benchmarks—support resistance to steeper declines, while limited new competition and sustained audience interest keep 38-41 million in play. Next tracking updates and early Friday estimates will likely refine these ranges ahead of the August 21-23 frame.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$0Date de fin
23 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 18, 2026, 3:56 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Spider-Man: Brand New Day enters its fourth weekend with strong momentum from a record-setting $70 million third frame, the second-best ever behind only The Force Awakens, pushing its domestic total past $786 million after just 17 days. Traders are pricing the most likely range at 35-38 million (49.5% implied probability), reflecting typical 45-55% drops for event films at this stage combined with back-to-school timing that historically softens midweek and family attendance. The film's exceptional legs—already ahead of prior MCU benchmarks—support resistance to steeper declines, while limited new competition and sustained audience interest keep 38-41 million in play. Next tracking updates and early Friday estimates will likely refine these ranges ahead of the August 21-23 frame.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
Le total des recettes nationales pour Spider-Man : Brand New Day sera-t-il compris entre 800 et 900 millions d'ici le 31 août ?
59%
Oui
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?
58%
Le box-office du 6ème week-end de « L'Odyssée » sera-t-il inférieur à 17 millions ?
50%
Oui
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