This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Drake's long-teased album *Iceman* dropped today on major streaming platforms, locking in 100% implied probability as the frontrunner outcome and validating trader consensus on music releases preceding GTA VI's November 19, 2026 console launch. Rockstar's repeated delays—from Fall 2025 to May, then November—fuel skepticism, pricing Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums above 50% amid their active campaigns, while Bitcoin $1M, Jesus' return, and China-Taiwan invasion linger near 49-51% as high-uncertainty longshots backed by $22M volume. Best Buy affiliate leaks point to pre-orders opening May 18, potentially with Trailer 3, ahead of Take-Two's earnings May 21; any slippage could shift odds further toward intervening events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Drake's long-teased album *Iceman* dropped today on major streaming platforms, locking in 100% implied probability as the frontrunner outcome and validating trader consensus on music releases preceding GTA VI's November 19, 2026 console launch. Rockstar's repeated delays—from Fall 2025 to May, then November—fuel skepticism, pricing Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums above 50% amid their active campaigns, while Bitcoin $1M, Jesus' return, and China-Taiwan invasion linger near 49-51% as high-uncertainty longshots backed by $22M volume. Best Buy affiliate leaks point to pre-orders opening May 18, potentially with Trailer 3, ahead of Take-Two's earnings May 21; any slippage could shift odds further toward intervening events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trump’s political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunny’s album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trump’s second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Dec 2 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice‑chairman
GPT-6 released jumps to 75%8%
Meta announced Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration official, as its new president and vice‑chairman, emphasizing her role in accelerating the company’s artificial‑intelligence initiatives, which lifted confidence in a forthcoming GPT‑6 release.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEA’s large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trump’s presidency market odds.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Cultural backlash intensifies against Trump’s immigration crackdown
Trump out as President surges to 51%21%
A wave of high‑profile criticism of President Trump’s immigration policies, including statements from artists and tech leaders, raised expectations that Trump might be removed from office, pushing the "Trump out as President" probability upward.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake officially releases Iceman before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Iceman refers to the upcoming studio album by Drake of that title, which has been promoted through videos released with the titles “Iceman Episode (1-4)”, and the singles “What Did I Miss”, “Which One”, and “Dog House.”
Officially released means that Iceman is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
The full Iceman studio album must be released in order to resolve this market. Further singles or Iceman video episodes will not be sufficient to resolve this market. Any Drake album officially confirmed to be the Iceman project will count, regardless of potential name changes.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify. A consensus of credible reporting that a released album is the Iceman project may be used if Drake releases the album under a different name.This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rihanna officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Playboi Carti officially releases a new album before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.
Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.
The resolution source for the album release will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump ceases to be the President of the U.S. for any period of time before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, will not count.
The resolution source for Trump leaving the presidency will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
An announcement of Trump's resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for China invading Taiwan will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be use
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has a final "High" price of $1,000,000 or higher before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for Bitcoin is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "High" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTCUSDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
The resolution source for the return of Jesus will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
The resolution for a ceasefire will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
Drake's long-teased album *Iceman* dropped today on major streaming platforms, locking in 100% implied probability as the frontrunner outcome and validating trader consensus on music releases preceding GTA VI's November 19, 2026 console launch. Rockstar's repeated delays—from Fall 2025 to May, then November—fuel skepticism, pricing Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums above 50% amid their active campaigns, while Bitcoin $1M, Jesus' return, and China-Taiwan invasion linger near 49-51% as high-uncertainty longshots backed by $22M volume. Best Buy affiliate leaks point to pre-orders opening May 18, potentially with Trailer 3, ahead of Take-Two's earnings May 21; any slippage could shift odds further toward intervening events.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.
The resolution source for the release of GTA VI is official information from Rockstar Games or its parent company, Take-Two Interactive.
To qualify, GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-4 to GPT-5. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for the release of GPT-6 will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Drake's long-teased album *Iceman* dropped today on major streaming platforms, locking in 100% implied probability as the frontrunner outcome and validating trader consensus on music releases preceding GTA VI's November 19, 2026 console launch. Rockstar's repeated delays—from Fall 2025 to May, then November—fuel skepticism, pricing Rihanna and Playboi Carti albums above 50% amid their active campaigns, while Bitcoin $1M, Jesus' return, and China-Taiwan invasion linger near 49-51% as high-uncertainty longshots backed by $22M volume. Best Buy affiliate leaks point to pre-orders opening May 18, potentially with Trailer 3, ahead of Take-Two's earnings May 21; any slippage could shift odds further toward intervening events.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Mar 20 2026
BTS releases new album 'ARIRANG' after nearly four-year hiatus
BTS released their new album 'ARIRANG' on March 20, 2026, marking their return after military service and increasing market confidence in new music releases before GTA VI.
Mar 20 2026
BTS announces comeback with new album 'ARIRANG'
New Rihanna Album jumps to 60%6%
After a nearly four-year hiatus due to military service, BTS announced their comeback album 'ARIRANG' set for March 20, 2026, increasing market confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Mar 6 2026
Harry Styles announces new album 'Kiss All The Time. Disco, Occasionally'
Harry Styles announced his new album to be released on March 6, 2026, generating anticipation in the music market and impacting the probabilities of new album releases before GTA VI.
Feb 26 2026
Pam Bondi resigns as Attorney General amid Justice Department upheaval
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
Pam Bondi, a Trump loyalist and Attorney General, resigned in February 2026 after controversies and internal Justice Department turmoil, impacting market views on Trump’s political stability before GTA VI.
Feb 12 2026
Drake Maye leads New England Patriots in Super Bowl debut
Drake releases Iceman surges to 82%30%
Drake Maye's Super Bowl debut with the New England Patriots, despite struggles, increased market confidence in the release of his album 'Iceman' before GTA VI, as his visibility and media coverage surged.
Feb 2 2026
Bad Bunny wins album of the year at 2026 Grammy Awards, first Spanish-language album to do so
New Rihanna Album rises to 55%3%
Bad Bunny’s album 'Debí Tirar Más Fotos' won album of the year at the 2026 Grammys, marking a historic moment for Spanish-language music and boosting confidence in a new Rihanna album before GTA VI.
Jan 22 2026
Bitcoin price falls below pre-Trump second term levels
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price decline below levels seen before Trump’s second term reflected investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, influencing market expectations of Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Jan 21 2026
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice chairman
GPT-6 released rises to 54%4%
Meta named Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration adviser, as president and vice chairman in January 2026, signaling closer ties between Trump and major tech firms, influencing GPT-6 release market sentiment.
Jan 20 2026
Pam Bondi steps down as Trump’s Attorney General
Trump out as President surges to 51%28%
Pam Bondi’s departure as Attorney General amid controversies and Justice Department upheaval contributed to increased market belief that Trump might be out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 20 2026
Donald Trump sworn in for second term as U.S. President
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
Donald Trump was inaugurated for his second term on January 20, 2026, increasing market attention on his political future and impacting the probability of him being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
Trump signs law returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President jumps to 19%5%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act, reversing a previous policy and signaling political activity that influenced the market's view on Trump being out as president before GTA VI.
Jan 14 2026
President Trump signs bill returning whole milk to school cafeterias
Trump out as President dips to 51%1%
President Trump signed the Whole Milk for Healthy Kids Act in January 2026, reversing a previous policy and reflecting his administration's influence on domestic policy, which may affect perceptions of his political future before GTA VI.
Dec 16 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%28%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills near Taiwan, escalating tensions and increasing market probability of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 14 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan
China invades Taiwan surges to 50%31%
The Trump administration announced a record $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, provoking China and increasing market expectations of a Chinese invasion before GTA VI.
Dec 5 2025
Donald Trump elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board, renaming it Trump-Kennedy Center
Trump out as President surges to 50%22%
In December 2025, Donald Trump was elected chairman of the Kennedy Center board and the center was renamed the Trump-Kennedy Center, sparking controversy and artist cancellations, influencing market perceptions of Trump's political standing before GTA VI.
Dec 4 2025
Bitcoin price plunges below $67,000, erasing gains since Trump’s second term
Bitcoin hits $1m dips to 49%1%
Bitcoin’s price fell sharply in December 2025, dropping below pre-Trump second term levels, reflecting investor concerns and regulatory uncertainty, which affected market confidence in Bitcoin hitting $1m before GTA VI.
Dec 2 2025
Meta appoints former Trump adviser Dina Powell McCormick as president and vice‑chairman
GPT-6 released jumps to 75%8%
Meta announced Dina Powell McCormick, a former Trump administration official, as its new president and vice‑chairman, emphasizing her role in accelerating the company’s artificial‑intelligence initiatives, which lifted confidence in a forthcoming GPT‑6 release.
Nov 19 2025
DEA seizes 628,000 carfentanil pills in Los Angeles, highlighting drug crisis
Trump out as President surges to 51%23%
The DEA’s large seizure of carfentanil pills in November 2025 underscored the ongoing opioid crisis, influencing political and social stability perceptions that may affect Trump’s presidency market odds.
Nov 8 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9M to compensate fraud victims
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 20%3%
Bitcoin Depot’s settlement to compensate victims of fraud involving its crypto ATMs highlighted the risks in the cryptocurrency market, influencing the market’s view on Bitcoin hitting $1 million before GTA VI.
Nov 8 2025
China stages large-scale military drills around Taiwan amid rising tensions
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%32%
China conducted two days of live-fire military drills around Taiwan in November 2025, signaling increased military pressure and raising the perceived risk of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 7 2025
Cultural backlash intensifies against Trump’s immigration crackdown
Trump out as President surges to 51%21%
A wave of high‑profile criticism of President Trump’s immigration policies, including statements from artists and tech leaders, raised expectations that Trump might be removed from office, pushing the "Trump out as President" probability upward.
Nov 7 2025
U.S. announces $10 billion arms sales package to Taiwan, angering China
China invades Taiwan surges to 51%33%
The Trump administration announced a massive arms sales package to Taiwan valued at over $10 billion, escalating tensions with China and increasing market expectations of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan before GTA VI.
Nov 5 2025
FBI reports $333 million lost to bitcoin ATM scams in 2025
Bitcoin hits $1m rises to 17%3%
The FBI’s report on the surge in bitcoin ATM scams underscored growing concerns about cryptocurrency fraud, affecting market sentiment on Bitcoin’s price potential before GTA VI.
Nov 4 2025
Bitcoin Depot agrees to pay $1.9 million to compensate victims of bitcoin ATM scams
Bitcoin hits $1m surges to 49%32%
Bitcoin Depot settled with the state of Maine to pay nearly $2 million to compensate victims of fraud involving bitcoin ATMs, highlighting the risks in the cryptocurrency market and influencing Bitcoin hitting $1m market probabilities.
Jun 13 2025
BTS members complete mandatory military service, signaling group comeback
New Playboi Carti Album surges to 53%21%
All seven members of BTS completed their South Korean mandatory military service by June 2025, ending a nearly four-year hiatus and setting the stage for a group comeback. This boosted market confidence in a new BTS album release before GTA VI.
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Questions fréquentes
« Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 9 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Drake sort Iceman » à 100%, suivi de « Cesse-feu Russie-Ukraine » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.
À ce jour, « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » a généré $21.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 2, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.
Pour trader sur « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? », parcourez les 9 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.
Le favori actuel pour « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » est « Drake sort Iceman » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Cesse-feu Russie-Ukraine » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.
Les règles de résolution de « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.
Oui. Vous n'avez pas besoin de trader pour rester informé. Cette page sert de suivi en direct pour « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? ». Les probabilités des résultats sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que de nouvelles transactions arrivent. Vous pouvez ajouter cette page à vos favoris et consulter la section commentaires pour voir ce que disent les autres traders. Vous pouvez également utiliser les filtres de plage temporelle sur le graphique pour voir comment les cotes ont évolué au fil du temps.
Les cotes de Polymarket sont fixées par de vrais traders qui mettent de l'argent réel derrière leurs convictions, ce qui tend à produire des prédictions précises. Avec $21.9 million échangés sur « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? », ces prix agrègent les connaissances collectives et la conviction de milliers de participants — surpassant souvent les sondages, les prévisions d’experts et les enquêtes traditionnelles. Les marchés de prédiction comme Polymarket ont un solide historique de précision, surtout à mesure que les événements approchent de leur date de résolution. Par exemple, Polymarket a un score de précision sur un mois de 94%. Pour les dernières statistiques sur la précision des prédictions de Polymarket, visitez la page de précision sur Polymarket.
Pour placer votre première transaction sur « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? », inscrivez-vous pour un compte Polymarket gratuit et approvisionnez-le en utilisant des cryptomonnaies, une carte de crédit ou débit, ou un virement bancaire. Une fois votre compte approvisionné, revenez sur cette page, sélectionnez le résultat sur lequel vous souhaitez trader, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous êtes nouveau dans les marchés de prédiction, cliquez sur le lien « Comment ça marche » en haut de n'importe quelle page Polymarket pour un guide étape par étape.
Sur Polymarket, le prix de chaque résultat représente la probabilité implicite du marché. Un prix de 100¢ pour « Drake sort Iceman » sur le marché « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » signifie que les traders estiment collectivement qu'il y a environ une probabilité de 100% que « Drake sort Iceman » sera le résultat correct. Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » à 100¢ et que le résultat est correct, vous recevez $1,00 par part — un gain de 0¢ par part. S'il est incorrect, ces parts valent $0.
Le marché « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » est prévu pour être résolu autour du Jul 31, 2026. Cela signifie que le trading restera ouvert et les cotes continueront d'évoluer jusqu'à cette date. Le moment exact de la résolution dépend de la disponibilité du résultat officiel, comme décrit dans la section « Règles ».
Le marché « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? » a une communauté active de 849 commentaires où les traders partagent leurs analyses, débattent des résultats et discutent des derniers développements. Faites défiler jusqu'à la section commentaires ci-dessous pour lire ce que pensent les autres participants. Vous pouvez également filtrer par « Principaux détenteurs » ou consulter l'onglet « Activité » pour un flux en temps réel des transactions.
Polymarket est le plus grand marché de prédiction au monde, où vous pouvez rester informé et profiter de vos connaissances sur les événements du monde réel. Les traders achètent et vendent des parts sur des résultats allant de la politique et des élections aux cryptomonnaies, finances, sports, technologie et culture, y compris des marchés comme « Que se passera-t-il avant GTA VI ? ». Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel soutenues par une conviction financière, fournissant souvent des signaux plus rapides et plus précis que les sondages, les commentateurs ou les enquêtes traditionnelles.
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