Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.4% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent April 16 release, which propelled multiple Claude variants into the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top five positions, dominating benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to challenge this lead, ranking eighth amid underwhelming real-world gains despite hype. Google's 17% odds reflect incremental Gemini 3.1 updates but no confirmed blockbuster ahead of potential I/O announcements, while others trail due to stagnant progress. With rapid iteration cycles, traders price in Anthropic's edge barring surprises, though leaderboard volatility near resolution remains a risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 72.4%
Google 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.7%
$5,761,810 Vol.
$5,761,810 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
72%
16%
OpenAI
8%
xAI
3%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 72.4%
Google 16%
OpenAI 8%
xAI 2.7%
$5,761,810 Vol.
$5,761,810 Vol.
30 juin 2026
Anthropic
$823,340 Vol.
72%
$503,224 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$330,115 Vol.
8%
xAI
$1,053,484 Vol.
3%
Meta
$127,160 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$493,047 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$153,508 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$292,839 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$360,397 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$350,769 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$462,676 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$143,766 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$149,069 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$371,283 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$151,745 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.4% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent April 16 release, which propelled multiple Claude variants into the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top five positions, dominating benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to challenge this lead, ranking eighth amid underwhelming real-world gains despite hype. Google's 17% odds reflect incremental Gemini 3.1 updates but no confirmed blockbuster ahead of potential I/O announcements, while others trail due to stagnant progress. With rapid iteration cycles, traders price in Anthropic's edge barring surprises, though leaderboard volatility near resolution remains a risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,761,810Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.4% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent April 16 release, which propelled multiple Claude variants into the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top five positions, dominating benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to challenge this lead, ranking eighth amid underwhelming real-world gains despite hype. Google's 17% odds reflect incremental Gemini 3.1 updates but no confirmed blockbuster ahead of potential I/O announcements, while others trail due to stagnant progress. With rapid iteration cycles, traders price in Anthropic's edge barring surprises, though leaderboard volatility near resolution remains a risk.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,761,810Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.4% implied probability to Anthropic claiming the top AI model by end of June, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's recent April 16 release, which propelled multiple Claude variants into the LMSYS Chatbot Arena's top five positions, dominating benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 launch on April 23 failed to challenge this lead, ranking eighth amid underwhelming real-world gains despite hype. Google's 17% odds reflect incremental Gemini 3.1 updates but no confirmed blockbuster ahead of potential I/O announcements, while others trail due to stagnant progress. With rapid iteration cycles, traders price in Anthropic's edge barring surprises, though leaderboard volatility near resolution remains a risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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