Anthropic’s recent advancements in its Claude series, particularly the April release of Opus 4.7, have solidified its position as the market leader according to trader consensus, driving the 89.5% implied probability for the company to hold the best AI model by end of May. This large language model has demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and adaptive reasoning compared to contemporaries, with no frontier-scale updates from competitors in the past two weeks to shift momentum. Google’s 10.5% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 improvements and efficiency gains, while OpenAI’s minimal 0.5% odds stem from its focus on iterative GPT-5.5 refinements rather than a decisive leap. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in the low likelihood of last-minute surprises altering the current competitive landscape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,840,804 Vol.
$8,840,804 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

11%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 90%
Google 11%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,840,804 Vol.
$8,840,804 Vol.

Anthropic
90%

11%

OpenAI
1%

ByteDance
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Meta
<1%

xAI
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent advancements in its Claude series, particularly the April release of Opus 4.7, have solidified its position as the market leader according to trader consensus, driving the 89.5% implied probability for the company to hold the best AI model by end of May. This large language model has demonstrated superior performance in agentic workflows, coding benchmarks, and adaptive reasoning compared to contemporaries, with no frontier-scale updates from competitors in the past two weeks to shift momentum. Google’s 10.5% share reflects steady Gemini 3.1 improvements and efficiency gains, while OpenAI’s minimal 0.5% odds stem from its focus on iterative GPT-5.5 refinements rather than a decisive leap. With resolution imminent, traders are pricing in the low likelihood of last-minute surprises altering the current competitive landscape.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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