Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and related Claude Code tools currently anchor trader consensus at a 93.2% implied probability, driven by sustained leadership on SWE-bench Verified scores near 80.8% and strong real-world performance in multi-file refactoring and agentic coding workflows. Recent benchmark updates and developer adoption data show these models outperforming GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro on complex, production-grade tasks, reinforcing the gap visible in the market. With resolution set for end of May, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google deliver a verified coding upgrade or if new third-party evaluations narrow the measurable difference before the close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 93.1%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 2.4%
DeepSeek <1%
$35,572 Vol.
$35,572 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

OpenAI
3%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meta
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93.1%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google 2.4%
DeepSeek <1%
$35,572 Vol.
$35,572 Vol.

Anthropic
93%

OpenAI
3%

2%

DeepSeek
1%

Moonshot
1%

Z.ai
<1%

xAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Meta
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 and related Claude Code tools currently anchor trader consensus at a 93.2% implied probability, driven by sustained leadership on SWE-bench Verified scores near 80.8% and strong real-world performance in multi-file refactoring and agentic coding workflows. Recent benchmark updates and developer adoption data show these models outperforming GPT-5.5 variants and Gemini 3.1 Pro on complex, production-grade tasks, reinforcing the gap visible in the market. With resolution set for end of May, the positioning could shift only if OpenAI or Google deliver a verified coding upgrade or if new third-party evaluations narrow the measurable difference before the close.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes