Tesla's Optimus production timeline centers on internal Fremont line conversion from retired Model S/X assembly, with limited Gen 3 builds now entering low-volume output in late August 2026 for the "Optimus Academy" training phase rather than external customers. Musk has repeatedly flagged the 10,000-part supply chain as the hardest scaling challenge yet, leading to softened guidance from a firm late-July/August start to "soon" and "later this year," while analysts project meaningful external revenue only in late 2027. Recent JPMorgan factory visits confirm line installation progress and a three-phase roadmap prioritizing data collection before third-party sales, amid zero disclosed unit counts or revenue. Q3 earnings in October and the September 3 Cybercab event represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 release thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$115,619 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
31 décembre
3%
$115,619 Vol.
31 décembre
$19,124 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla's Optimus production timeline centers on internal Fremont line conversion from retired Model S/X assembly, with limited Gen 3 builds now entering low-volume output in late August 2026 for the "Optimus Academy" training phase rather than external customers. Musk has repeatedly flagged the 10,000-part supply chain as the hardest scaling challenge yet, leading to softened guidance from a firm late-July/August start to "soon" and "later this year," while analysts project meaningful external revenue only in late 2027. Recent JPMorgan factory visits confirm line installation progress and a three-phase roadmap prioritizing data collection before third-party sales, amid zero disclosed unit counts or revenue. Q3 earnings in October and the September 3 Cybercab event represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 release thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
Volume
$115,619Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
..Résolveur
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.Tesla's Optimus production timeline centers on internal Fremont line conversion from retired Model S/X assembly, with limited Gen 3 builds now entering low-volume output in late August 2026 for the "Optimus Academy" training phase rather than external customers. Musk has repeatedly flagged the 10,000-part supply chain as the hardest scaling challenge yet, leading to softened guidance from a firm late-July/August start to "soon" and "later this year," while analysts project meaningful external revenue only in late 2027. Recent JPMorgan factory visits confirm line installation progress and a three-phase roadmap prioritizing data collection before third-party sales, amid zero disclosed unit counts or revenue. Q3 earnings in October and the September 3 Cybercab event represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 release thresholds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify.
To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public.
The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.
Volume
$115,619Date de fin
1 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 22, 2026, 4:18 PM ETSource de résolution
..Résolveur
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Optimus production timeline centers on internal Fremont line conversion from retired Model S/X assembly, with limited Gen 3 builds now entering low-volume output in late August 2026 for the "Optimus Academy" training phase rather than external customers. Musk has repeatedly flagged the 10,000-part supply chain as the hardest scaling challenge yet, leading to softened guidance from a firm late-July/August start to "soon" and "later this year," while analysts project meaningful external revenue only in late 2027. Recent JPMorgan factory visits confirm line installation progress and a three-phase roadmap prioritizing data collection before third-party sales, amid zero disclosed unit counts or revenue. Q3 earnings in October and the September 3 Cybercab event represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities on 2026 release thresholds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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