The closely balanced odds around 53.5% for "No" reflect uncertainty over whether new details in Jane Doe's September 2026 civil lawsuit will overcome the Tompkins County DA's prior 2024 determination that her initial statement described voluntary conduct without establishing lack of consent under New York penal law. The DA has publicly condemned the accused Chi Phi members' behavior as morally reprehensible while noting that prior evidence did not support felony charges, yet reopened the probe and assigned a sex-crimes prosecutor to prepare the case for grand jury review. Key swing factors include the grand jury's assessment of any additional evidence or testimony, discrepancies between the lawsuit allegations and the original police statement, and statements from the named individuals or their counsel. Resolution could hinge on the timing and outcome of that presentation, alongside any corroborating materials from the ongoing civil litigation.