Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through a canceled primary on March 3, solidifying his matchup against Democrat James Russell, who narrowly won his primary 53%-47%, in the November general election for Arkansas's 4th Congressional District. Rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+20 partisan lean—where Donald Trump carried 69% in 2024—Westerman has won prior cycles by 70%+ margins amid weak Democratic opposition and his $4.4 million cash-on-hand advantage. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift trader consensus, which prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability per the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, Westerman's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAR-04 House Election Winner
AR-04 House Election Winner
$14,480 वॉल्यूम
$14,480 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
95%
Democratic Party
4%
$14,480 वॉल्यूम
$14,480 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$8,231 वॉल्यूम
95%
Democratic Party
$6,248 वॉल्यूम
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through a canceled primary on March 3, solidifying his matchup against Democrat James Russell, who narrowly won his primary 53%-47%, in the November general election for Arkansas's 4th Congressional District. Rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+20 partisan lean—where Donald Trump carried 69% in 2024—Westerman has won prior cycles by 70%+ margins amid weak Democratic opposition and his $4.4 million cash-on-hand advantage. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift trader consensus, which prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability per the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, Westerman's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,480समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through a canceled primary on March 3, solidifying his matchup against Democrat James Russell, who narrowly won his primary 53%-47%, in the November general election for Arkansas's 4th Congressional District. Rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+20 partisan lean—where Donald Trump carried 69% in 2024—Westerman has won prior cycles by 70%+ margins amid weak Democratic opposition and his $4.4 million cash-on-hand advantage. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift trader consensus, which prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability per the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, Westerman's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$14,480समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman advanced unopposed through a canceled primary on March 3, solidifying his matchup against Democrat James Russell, who narrowly won his primary 53%-47%, in the November general election for Arkansas's 4th Congressional District. Rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+20 partisan lean—where Donald Trump carried 69% in 2024—Westerman has won prior cycles by 70%+ margins amid weak Democratic opposition and his $4.4 million cash-on-hand advantage. No notable developments have emerged in the past 30 days to shift trader consensus, which prices Republicans at 94.5% implied probability per the wisdom of crowds. Realistic challenges include a major scandal, Westerman's health issues, or an overwhelming national Democratic wave.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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