Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 9th Congressional District seat, reflecting the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Gosar's history of landslide victories, including a 30-plus-point margin in 2024. With primaries set for July 21, Gosar faces minimal threat from challenger Teresa Volesky in the Republican contest, while the Democratic primary pits underfunded, low-profile candidates Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward against each other amid no competitive polling. Absent a primary upset, scandal, or unexpected Democratic recruitment surge, structural advantages and incumbency strongly favor a Republican hold on November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाAZ-09 House Election Winner
AZ-09 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
90%
Democratic Party
11%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$718 वॉल्यूम
90%
Democratic Party
$935 वॉल्यूम
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 9th Congressional District seat, reflecting the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Gosar's history of landslide victories, including a 30-plus-point margin in 2024. With primaries set for July 21, Gosar faces minimal threat from challenger Teresa Volesky in the Republican contest, while the Democratic primary pits underfunded, low-profile candidates Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward against each other amid no competitive polling. Absent a primary upset, scandal, or unexpected Democratic recruitment surge, structural advantages and incumbency strongly favor a Republican hold on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,653समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 9th Congressional District seat, reflecting the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Gosar's history of landslide victories, including a 30-plus-point margin in 2024. With primaries set for July 21, Gosar faces minimal threat from challenger Teresa Volesky in the Republican contest, while the Democratic primary pits underfunded, low-profile candidates Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward against each other amid no competitive polling. Absent a primary upset, scandal, or unexpected Democratic recruitment surge, structural advantages and incumbency strongly favor a Republican hold on November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$1,653समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar dominates trader consensus at 89.5% implied probability to retain Arizona's 9th Congressional District seat, reflecting the district's R+15 Cook Partisan Voter Index and Gosar's history of landslide victories, including a 30-plus-point margin in 2024. With primaries set for July 21, Gosar faces minimal threat from challenger Teresa Volesky in the Republican contest, while the Democratic primary pits underfunded, low-profile candidates Keith Lara, Danielle Sterbinsky, and Camelia Ward against each other amid no competitive polling. Absent a primary upset, scandal, or unexpected Democratic recruitment surge, structural advantages and incumbency strongly favor a Republican hold on November 3.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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