The Bank of Russia’s April 24 decision to cut the key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5 percent—its eighth consecutive reduction—has established a clear easing trajectory that underpins the 85.5 percent implied probability of another decrease at the June 19 meeting. Cooling inflation pressures, with underlying price growth holding in the 4–5 percent annualized range, combined with evidence of moderating domestic demand and a first-quarter economic contraction, have reinforced trader expectations that policymakers will continue the cycle to support supply-side expansion while guiding the 2026 average rate toward the 14.0–14.5 percent baseline forecast. Persistent pro-inflationary risks from fiscal stimulus and external uncertainties sustain the modest 12.5 percent odds of no change, while the negligible 2.1 percent probability of an increase reflects the absence of any immediate overheating signals.