The tight race for first place among Brazilian voters abroad in the October 25 runoff stems from the narrow first-round split, where Lula edged expatriate ballots 47.6% to 43.5% for Flávio Bolsonaro amid low turnout and stark regional divides. Lula prevailed in 64 countries, particularly across Europe, while Flávio led in the Americas, driven by strong results in the United States. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with Lula at a modest premium and Flávio close behind, as both campaigns now target undecided expatriates through targeted outreach on economic policy, security, and institutional issues ahead of the vote. Regional mobilization patterns and any late shifts in diaspora sentiment remain key variables.