Recent polls show Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election and potential October 25 runoff remain tightly contested, with incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a modest first-round edge over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro while runoff simulations register statistical ties within margins of error. Flávio, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro who is serving a lengthy prison sentence after his 2022 defeat, has consolidated right-wing support. Multiple surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, BTG/Nexus, and AtlasIntel indicate Lula at 37–42% and Flávio at 33–37% in the opening round, with runoff pairings near 41–47% each. Late-campaign welfare measures, welfare expansions, and international statements have featured alongside debates over economic conditions and institutional tensions. The narrow polling spreads leave room for shifts from turnout patterns or final-week developments.