Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Roraima for first place in the October 25 second round, driven by his 71 percent share of valid votes in the October 4 first round—the highest percentage among all states. This reflects entrenched regional backing for the PL party and the Bolsonaro family, consistent with prior cycles, alongside local priorities favoring expanded mining, cattle ranching, and rural production. Pre-election surveys showed similar double-digit advantages, with Lula trailing far behind amid broad state-level disapproval of the incumbent administration. While the runoff structure means only these two candidates remain viable nationally, late shifts in turnout or unforeseen events could theoretically narrow margins, though historical patterns and the scale of the first-round gap limit realistic pathways for reversal.