Canada’s August monthly GDP growth is tracking toward the 0.2–0.3% range that commands a 46.5% market-implied probability, following Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of a 0.2% rebound released on September 29. That figure reflects expected gains in mining and quarrying plus retail trade, partially offset by softer oil-and-gas extraction, after July’s flat reading and a revised 0.4% June increase. Preliminary indicators such as manufacturing sales and retail data align with the modest expansion, though the final October 30 release could incorporate revisions. Emerging U.S. tariff effects and broader third-quarter momentum remain secondary influences on trader positioning ahead of the official print.