Christopher Luxon’s position as National Party leader and New Zealand Prime Minister rests on caucus backing that was reaffirmed in an August 12 confidence vote, his second such challenge in four months. The vote followed an attempt by Defence Minister Chris Penk, who was subsequently removed from cabinet, and came amid reports of internal frustration over recent public missteps and weak polling. National’s caucus emerged united behind Luxon, who faces a general election scheduled for November 7. While his personal preferred-prime-minister rating sits at 17 percent and the coalition trails in some surveys amid sluggish growth and rising unemployment, no procedural mechanisms or scheduled events point to a leadership change before September 30. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to his continued tenure through that date.