Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Rep. Cory Mills (R-FL) remaining in office past May 31, driven by his repeated public refusals to resign amid an ongoing House Ethics Committee probe into allegations of misconduct, including domestic assault claims and campaign finance issues. A May 11 subcommittee update described the investigation as "serious and complex," with no timeline for resolution or floor vote on expulsion resolutions like H.Res.1193 introduced in April, which stalled without momentum. Mills recently reaffirmed his intent to fight the charges, citing support from Speaker Johnson to await due process. While expulsion requires a House majority—historically rare absent criminal conviction—late-breaking evidence, health events, or intensified bipartisan pressure could shift odds before the deadline.