Traders' 73% implied probability on "No" for a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235 or more House seats post-2026 midterms—reflects skepticism over the scale of potential gains despite favorable generic ballot trends (D+4 to D+6) and Democratic swings in recent special elections and off-year races. President Trump's sagging approval ratings, a wave of GOP retirements, and early forecasts projecting House flips of 20-30 seats align with historical midterm out-party averages (~25 net gains), but GOP gerrymandering from 2021 redistricting and a defensively strong map cap upside for landslide margins. Senate forecasts remain competitive, with no path to supermajorities evident; upcoming primaries and economic data through summer could influence sentiment ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$27,572 वॉल्यूम
$27,572 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
हाँ
$27,572 वॉल्यूम
$27,572 वॉल्यूम
30 नव, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders' 73% implied probability on "No" for a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235 or more House seats post-2026 midterms—reflects skepticism over the scale of potential gains despite favorable generic ballot trends (D+4 to D+6) and Democratic swings in recent special elections and off-year races. President Trump's sagging approval ratings, a wave of GOP retirements, and early forecasts projecting House flips of 20-30 seats align with historical midterm out-party averages (~25 net gains), but GOP gerrymandering from 2021 redistricting and a defensively strong map cap upside for landslide margins. Senate forecasts remain competitive, with no path to supermajorities evident; upcoming primaries and economic data through summer could influence sentiment ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$27,572समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdfTraders' 73% implied probability on "No" for a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235 or more House seats post-2026 midterms—reflects skepticism over the scale of potential gains despite favorable generic ballot trends (D+4 to D+6) and Democratic swings in recent special elections and off-year races. President Trump's sagging approval ratings, a wave of GOP retirements, and early forecasts projecting House flips of 20-30 seats align with historical midterm out-party averages (~25 net gains), but GOP gerrymandering from 2021 redistricting and a defensively strong map cap upside for landslide margins. Senate forecasts remain competitive, with no path to supermajorities evident; upcoming primaries and economic data through summer could influence sentiment ahead of November.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
- Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueTsunami.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$27,572समाप्ति तिथि
30 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 73% implied probability on "No" for a blue tsunami—defined as Democrats securing 235 or more House seats post-2026 midterms—reflects skepticism over the scale of potential gains despite favorable generic ballot trends (D+4 to D+6) and Democratic swings in recent special elections and off-year races. President Trump's sagging approval ratings, a wave of GOP retirements, and early forecasts projecting House flips of 20-30 seats align with historical midterm out-party averages (~25 net gains), but GOP gerrymandering from 2021 redistricting and a defensively strong map cap upside for landslide margins. Senate forecasts remain competitive, with no path to supermajorities evident; upcoming primaries and economic data through summer could influence sentiment ahead of November.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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