**Trader consensus for 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing renomination this cycle reflects three confirmed primary defeats so far—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd—amid an elevated but contained pace of challenges.** These outcomes stem from targeted Trump-backed campaigns testing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, and other issues, plus limited redistricting effects in states like Texas. With most primaries concluded and historical averages near 6-7 total incumbent losses per cycle across both parties, markets price limited additional Republican upsets in the remaining contests. A higher total could occur if late-cycle challenges succeed in open or competitive districts, while fewer than four would require an unusually quiet finish to the primary calendar.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकितने रिपब्लिकन हाउस के पदाधिकारी अपना प्राइमरी नहीं जीतेंगे?
कितने रिपब्लिकन हाउस के पदाधिकारी अपना प्राइमरी नहीं जीतेंगे?
4-6 92.8%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.2%
>15 2.8%
$76,080 वॉल्यूम
$76,080 वॉल्यूम
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
3%
13-15
2%
>15
3%
4-6 92.8%
7-9 4.9%
10-12 3.2%
>15 2.8%
$76,080 वॉल्यूम
$76,080 वॉल्यूम
≤3
$38,821 वॉल्यूम
<1%
4-6
$19,264 वॉल्यूम
93%
7-9
$6,315 वॉल्यूम
5%
10-12
$5,051 वॉल्यूम
3%
13-15
$3,933 वॉल्यूम
2%
>15
$2,696 वॉल्यूम
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus for 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing renomination this cycle reflects three confirmed primary defeats so far—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd—amid an elevated but contained pace of challenges.** These outcomes stem from targeted Trump-backed campaigns testing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, and other issues, plus limited redistricting effects in states like Texas. With most primaries concluded and historical averages near 6-7 total incumbent losses per cycle across both parties, markets price limited additional Republican upsets in the remaining contests. A higher total could occur if late-cycle challenges succeed in open or competitive districts, while fewer than four would require an unusually quiet finish to the primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$76,080बाज़ार खुला
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus for 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing renomination this cycle reflects three confirmed primary defeats so far—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd—amid an elevated but contained pace of challenges.** These outcomes stem from targeted Trump-backed campaigns testing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, and other issues, plus limited redistricting effects in states like Texas. With most primaries concluded and historical averages near 6-7 total incumbent losses per cycle across both parties, markets price limited additional Republican upsets in the remaining contests. A higher total could occur if late-cycle challenges succeed in open or competitive districts, while fewer than four would require an unusually quiet finish to the primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
वॉल्यूम
$76,080बाज़ार खुला
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...परिणाम प्रस्तावित: नहीं
कोई विवाद नहीं
अंतिम परिणाम: नहीं
**Trader consensus for 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing renomination this cycle reflects three confirmed primary defeats so far—Thomas Massie in Kentucky’s 4th, Andy Ogles in Tennessee’s 5th, and Dan Crenshaw in Texas’s 2nd—amid an elevated but contained pace of challenges.** These outcomes stem from targeted Trump-backed campaigns testing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, and other issues, plus limited redistricting effects in states like Texas. With most primaries concluded and historical averages near 6-7 total incumbent losses per cycle across both parties, markets price limited additional Republican upsets in the remaining contests. A higher total could occur if late-cycle challenges succeed in open or competitive districts, while fewer than four would require an unusually quiet finish to the primary calendar.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
45%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
87%
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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