**As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election,** placing the count squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This figure reflects a historically elevated wave of departures in the president’s party during a midterm cycle, with Republicans accounting for the large majority of the roughly 60 total House members stepping aside. Key drivers include members pursuing higher office—such as Senate or gubernatorial bids in states like Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma—alongside straightforward retirements. The pattern aligns with structural incentives in a narrow majority environment and follows an unusually early and steady pace of announcements that began in late 2025 and continued through spring and summer 2026. No late surge or reversal has materialized, and filing deadlines plus primary calendars have not produced additional departures sufficient to shift the total outside the current band. Traders therefore view 36–39 as the near-certain resolution zone unless unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals occur before the November 2026 ballot is finalized.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया2026 में कितने रिपब्लिकन हाउस सदस्य नहीं चल रहे हैं?
2026 में कितने रिपब्लिकन हाउस सदस्य नहीं चल रहे हैं?
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 3.3%
44+ 1.7%
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
30 अग, 2026
<24
1%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
3%
36–39
83%
40–43
6%
44+
2%
36–39 82.5%
40–43 6.0%
32–35 3.3%
44+ 1.7%
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
$71,989 वॉल्यूम
30 अग, 2026
<24
$6,266 वॉल्यूम
1%
24–27
$20,164 वॉल्यूम
2%
28–31
$23,648 वॉल्यूम
1%
32–35
$6,274 वॉल्यूम
3%
36–39
$8,153 वॉल्यूम
83%
40–43
$3,871 वॉल्यूम
6%
44+
$3,613 वॉल्यूम
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election,** placing the count squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This figure reflects a historically elevated wave of departures in the president’s party during a midterm cycle, with Republicans accounting for the large majority of the roughly 60 total House members stepping aside.
Key drivers include members pursuing higher office—such as Senate or gubernatorial bids in states like Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma—alongside straightforward retirements. The pattern aligns with structural incentives in a narrow majority environment and follows an unusually early and steady pace of announcements that began in late 2025 and continued through spring and summer 2026. No late surge or reversal has materialized, and filing deadlines plus primary calendars have not produced additional departures sufficient to shift the total outside the current band.
Traders therefore view 36–39 as the near-certain resolution zone unless unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals occur before the November 2026 ballot is finalized.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$71,989समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election,** placing the count squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This figure reflects a historically elevated wave of departures in the president’s party during a midterm cycle, with Republicans accounting for the large majority of the roughly 60 total House members stepping aside.
Key drivers include members pursuing higher office—such as Senate or gubernatorial bids in states like Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma—alongside straightforward retirements. The pattern aligns with structural incentives in a narrow majority environment and follows an unusually early and steady pace of announcements that began in late 2025 and continued through spring and summer 2026. No late surge or reversal has materialized, and filing deadlines plus primary calendars have not produced additional departures sufficient to shift the total outside the current band.
Traders therefore view 36–39 as the near-certain resolution zone unless unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals occur before the November 2026 ballot is finalized.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$71,989समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**As of mid-August 2026, 37 Republican House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election,** placing the count squarely in the 36–39 range that commands 82.5% market probability. This figure reflects a historically elevated wave of departures in the president’s party during a midterm cycle, with Republicans accounting for the large majority of the roughly 60 total House members stepping aside. Key drivers include members pursuing higher office—such as Senate or gubernatorial bids in states like Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Oklahoma—alongside straightforward retirements. The pattern aligns with structural incentives in a narrow majority environment and follows an unusually early and steady pace of announcements that began in late 2025 and continued through spring and summer 2026. No late surge or reversal has materialized, and filing deadlines plus primary calendars have not produced additional departures sufficient to shift the total outside the current band. Traders therefore view 36–39 as the near-certain resolution zone unless unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals occur before the November 2026 ballot is finalized.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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