Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया7 77%
11 5.9%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
6%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 5.9%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
$22,734 वॉल्यूम
1%
5
$17,485 वॉल्यूम
3%
6
$27,247 वॉल्यूम
1%
7
$16,967 वॉल्यूम
77%
8
$4,602 वॉल्यूम
1%
9
$2,208 वॉल्यूम
5%
10
$1,839 वॉल्यूम
2%
11
$2,845 वॉल्यूम
6%
12+
$5,082 वॉल्यूम
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$101,009समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$101,009समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, aligning with the market's strong consensus around that total. Key retirements include Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), and Alan Armstrong (OK), with announcements spanning late 2025 into mid-2026. These decisions reflect standard factors such as age, leadership transitions, and personal timing rather than coordinated waves. No additional Republican announcements have occurred in recent weeks, and filing deadlines in most states leave limited room for further shifts before the November election. Traders therefore price modest probabilities on higher totals like 9 or 11, reflecting the chance of one or two late decisions, while viewing lower figures as unlikely given confirmed exits.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
क्या 2026 में सेवानिवृत्त होने वाले रिपब्लिकन हाउस सदस्यों की संख्या 36 से 39 (दोनों सहित) के बीच होगी?
81%
हाँ
क्या 2026 में सेवानिवृत्त होने वाले डेमोक्रेटिक हाउस सदस्यों की संख्या 20 से 23 के बीच (दोनों सहित) होगी?
40%
हाँ
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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