Recent announcements have established seven Republican senators as not seeking re-election in 2026, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship), and Alan Armstrong (OK, completing an appointed term). These decisions reflect factors such as age and health considerations, state-level opportunities, intraparty dynamics, and filing deadlines now largely passed in relevant states. Trader consensus at 77.5% on exactly seven aligns with the stabilized count from Ballotpedia and similar trackers through early August 2026, with limited probability assigned to additional retirements given the absence of new public statements or shifts in the weeks leading to primaries. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining procedural windows and historical patterns of late-cycle changes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया7 78%
11 9.3%
9 4.5%
5 3.4%
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
78%
8
1%
9
4%
10
2%
11
9%
12+
1%
7 78%
11 9.3%
9 4.5%
5 3.4%
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
$101,009 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
<5
$22,734 वॉल्यूम
1%
5
$17,485 वॉल्यूम
3%
6
$27,247 वॉल्यूम
1%
7
$16,967 वॉल्यूम
78%
8
$4,602 वॉल्यूम
1%
9
$2,208 वॉल्यूम
4%
10
$1,839 वॉल्यूम
2%
11
$2,845 वॉल्यूम
9%
12+
$5,082 वॉल्यूम
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have established seven Republican senators as not seeking re-election in 2026, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship), and Alan Armstrong (OK, completing an appointed term). These decisions reflect factors such as age and health considerations, state-level opportunities, intraparty dynamics, and filing deadlines now largely passed in relevant states. Trader consensus at 77.5% on exactly seven aligns with the stabilized count from Ballotpedia and similar trackers through early August 2026, with limited probability assigned to additional retirements given the absence of new public statements or shifts in the weeks leading to primaries. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining procedural windows and historical patterns of late-cycle changes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$101,009समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements have established seven Republican senators as not seeking re-election in 2026, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship), and Alan Armstrong (OK, completing an appointed term). These decisions reflect factors such as age and health considerations, state-level opportunities, intraparty dynamics, and filing deadlines now largely passed in relevant states. Trader consensus at 77.5% on exactly seven aligns with the stabilized count from Ballotpedia and similar trackers through early August 2026, with limited probability assigned to additional retirements given the absence of new public statements or shifts in the weeks leading to primaries. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining procedural windows and historical patterns of late-cycle changes.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$101,009समाप्ति तिथि
31 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements have established seven Republican senators as not seeking re-election in 2026, including Mitch McConnell (KY), Thom Tillis (NC), Joni Ernst (IA), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship), and Alan Armstrong (OK, completing an appointed term). These decisions reflect factors such as age and health considerations, state-level opportunities, intraparty dynamics, and filing deadlines now largely passed in relevant states. Trader consensus at 77.5% on exactly seven aligns with the stabilized count from Ballotpedia and similar trackers through early August 2026, with limited probability assigned to additional retirements given the absence of new public statements or shifts in the weeks leading to primaries. The market reflects skin-in-the-game assessments of remaining procedural windows and historical patterns of late-cycle changes.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयासंबंधित
क्या 2026 में सेवानिवृत्त होने वाले रिपब्लिकन हाउस सदस्यों की संख्या 36 से 39 (दोनों सहित) के बीच होगी?
84%
हाँ
क्या 2026 में सेवानिवृत्त होने वाले डेमोक्रेटिक हाउस सदस्यों की संख्या 20 से 23 के बीच (दोनों सहित) होगी?
43%
हाँ
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
74%
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