Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाID -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
ID -01 हाउस इलेक्शन विनर
$33,743 वॉल्यूम
$33,743 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
97%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
3%
$33,743 वॉल्यूम
$33,743 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$21,177 वॉल्यूम
97%
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$12,565 वॉल्यूम
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$33,743समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$33,743समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Russ Fulcher's commanding position in Idaho's 1st Congressional District, rated Solid Republican by Cook Political Report with an R+22 partisan voter index, drives trader consensus toward a 96.8% implied probability of a GOP victory in the November 3 general election. The district delivered 71% for Trump in 2024, aligning with Fulcher's prior landslide wins of 71% in 2024 and 2022. With primaries set for May 19, Fulcher faces nominal challengers Andy Briner and Joseph Morrison, while Democrats Ken Brungardt and Kaylee Peterson vie in a low-resource primary; independent Sarah Zabel adds little threat. Scenarios like a primary upset, Fulcher scandal, or national wave could shift odds, though historical base rates favor the incumbent.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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