Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report where Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024, reflecting its strong GOP voter registration edge (41% R vs. 34% D). Recent first-quarter fundraising reports through April 2026 show Bean with $1.2 million cash on hand, dwarfing top Democrat Michael Kirwan's $226,000 despite his Jacksonville firefighters endorsement in March. A crowded Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson on August 18 risks a fragmented field against Bean and minor GOP challenger Anthony Valerio, reinforcing the district's historical Republican holds amid no public polling.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$11,781 वॉल्यूम
$11,781 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
20%
$11,781 वॉल्यूम
$11,781 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$6,745 वॉल्यूम
81%
Democratic Party
$5,036 वॉल्यूम
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report where Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024, reflecting its strong GOP voter registration edge (41% R vs. 34% D). Recent first-quarter fundraising reports through April 2026 show Bean with $1.2 million cash on hand, dwarfing top Democrat Michael Kirwan's $226,000 despite his Jacksonville firefighters endorsement in March. A crowded Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson on August 18 risks a fragmented field against Bean and minor GOP challenger Anthony Valerio, reinforcing the district's historical Republican holds amid no public polling.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$11,781समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report where Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024, reflecting its strong GOP voter registration edge (41% R vs. 34% D). Recent first-quarter fundraising reports through April 2026 show Bean with $1.2 million cash on hand, dwarfing top Democrat Michael Kirwan's $226,000 despite his Jacksonville firefighters endorsement in March. A crowded Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson on August 18 risks a fragmented field against Bean and minor GOP challenger Anthony Valerio, reinforcing the district's historical Republican holds amid no public polling.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$11,781समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean dominates trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to retain Florida's 4th Congressional District, a Solid Republican seat per Cook Political Report where Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2024, reflecting its strong GOP voter registration edge (41% R vs. 34% D). Recent first-quarter fundraising reports through April 2026 show Bean with $1.2 million cash on hand, dwarfing top Democrat Michael Kirwan's $226,000 despite his Jacksonville firefighters endorsement in March. A crowded Democratic primary featuring LaShonda Holloway, Kirwan, Ricky Knoles, and Brittney Robinson on August 18 risks a fragmented field against Bean and minor GOP challenger Anthony Valerio, reinforcing the district's historical Republican holds amid no public polling.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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