Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
14%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,754 वॉल्यूम
85%
Republican Party
$4,139 वॉल्यूम
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,893समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$9,893समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has shifted California's 48th Congressional District—a San Diego-Riverside battleground—from Republican stronghold to Democratic-leaning tossup territory per Cook Political Report, fueling trader consensus pricing Democratic Party victory at 84.5% implied probability for the November general election despite the open seat after incumbent Darrell Issa's retirement. A late-April SurveyUSA poll showed Republican Jim Desmond leading a crowded top-two primary field at 25% amid Democratic vote-splitting among candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%) and Marni von Wilpert (6%), with 25% undecided; however, markets anticipate primary consolidation enabling a strong Democratic nominee. The June 2 primary looms as the next catalyst, with outside spending surging on top Democrats.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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