The strong Republican majority in the House of Representatives drives the near-certain trader consensus against impeachment by June 30, as articles of impeachment require a majority vote that lacks any visible bipartisan support or procedural momentum. No recent scandals, investigations, or legislative shifts have created the conditions historically needed for such action, with House priorities focused instead on appropriations, confirmations, and policy votes. Past impeachments succeeded only amid extraordinary cross-party agreement or major public pressure, neither of which applies in the current environment. While an unforeseen development such as new evidence from ongoing inquiries or a sudden change in House composition could still intervene before the deadline, these remain low-probability events given established institutional patterns and timelines.