Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa’s decisive April 2025 re-election for a full term through 2029 underpins traders’ overwhelming 95.5 percent consensus that he will remain in office through June 30. No impeachment proceedings have advanced in the National Assembly, and opposition-led recall efforts face steep signature thresholds plus lengthy verification timelines that make a binding vote by the deadline improbable. Noboa continues active governance, including recent cabinet adjustments, curfew declarations in multiple provinces, and security-focused diplomacy, reinforcing institutional continuity. While sudden health developments, unforeseen legal reversals, or rapid escalation of domestic protests could theoretically alter the timeline, current political conditions and procedural barriers render such shifts highly unlikely before the end of the month.