Florida’s 9th Congressional District Republican primary remains tightly contested ahead of the August 18 vote due to 2026 redistricting that shifted boundaries to favor GOP prospects against incumbent Darren Soto. A recent Victory Insights poll showed Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, and Ben Butler statistically tied near 14% each, with Dan Green close behind at 12% and 41% of likely primary voters undecided. Name recognition among undecideds, late endorsements, and candidate backgrounds ranging from ranching and teaching to prior nominations and military service continue to shape positioning. Prediction market pricing reflects this fragmented field, where any surge in turnout or last-minute momentum among the top contenders could determine the nominee.