Trader consensus favors Fernando Dias da Costa at 50% implied probability for Guinea-Bissau's December 6 presidential election, reflecting his strong performance as the leading challenger in the annulled November 2025 vote, where partial tallies showed him ahead in seven of nine regions and backed by the opposition Party for Social Renewal and Terra Ranka coalition. Siga Batista trails at 23%, gaining traction as an independent amid fragmented field, while incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló languishes at 1.4% following the military coup that destroyed 2025 results and installed transitional authorities. ECOWAS pressures for a credible poll persist, but ongoing political violence and restrictions noted in April heighten uncertainty, with no published polls permitted by electoral law. Key upcoming catalysts include candidate endorsements and campaign momentum in battleground regions.