Forecast models from sources like AccuWeather and timeanddate indicate a continuation of the ongoing summer heat wave across the Sichuan Basin, with Chengdu daytime highs projected near 36°C on August 15 amid partly cloudy skies, light winds, and isolated late thunderstorms. High humidity and topographic trapping of warm air support these elevated readings, consistent with typical August climatology where peaks often reach 34–36°C. Recent observations show consecutive days near 36–37°C under similar conditions, driving trader emphasis on the 35–37°C outcomes. Uncertainties around storm timing and intensity could moderate the daily maximum by a degree or two, while clearer periods might allow brief spikes higher, keeping market-implied odds centered on this narrow range ahead of final observations.