Recent short-range forecasts from agencies including Roshydromet and global models indicate Moscow will see increased cloud cover, passing showers, and moderate northwesterly winds on August 13, limiting daytime heating and pointing to a daily maximum near 16–17 °C. This setup contrasts with late-August climatology, where average highs reach about 22 °C under clearer anticyclonic conditions. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with minor model differences in precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds between 15 °C and 17 °C. Updated model runs and observational data over the next 48 hours will refine whether the peak edges toward the lower or upper end of this range.