**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 10–16, 2026, at 92.4% implied probability.** This positioning rests on USGS catalog data confirming three qualifying events: a deep M7.4 strike-slip quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia (110 km depth), an M7.7 event on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia (shallow ~10 km), and one additional reviewed M6.5+ mainshock or aftershock sequence within the window. These align with typical global rates of roughly one to three such events per week, concentrated along subduction zones and transform boundaries. USGS preliminary and reviewed solutions, cross-checked against historical weekly seismicity patterns, underpin the near-certain market odds for three. Minor model or reporting discrepancies can occur, but finalized ComCat entries rarely change enough to alter the count once reviewed. Realistic challenges include a late magnitude downgrade of a borderline event below 6.5, discovery of an undetected shallow quake, or reclassification of aftershocks, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current monitoring density and review timelines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया10 अगस्त से 16 अगस्त तक 6.5 या उससे अधिक के कितने भूकंप आए?
10 अगस्त से 16 अगस्त तक 6.5 या उससे अधिक के कितने भूकंप आए?
$35,611 वॉल्यूम
$35,611 वॉल्यूम
10 अग, 2026
3
92%
4
8%
$35,611 वॉल्यूम
$35,611 वॉल्यूम
10 अग, 2026
3
$4,627 वॉल्यूम
92%
4
$1,522 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 10–16, 2026, at 92.4% implied probability.** This positioning rests on USGS catalog data confirming three qualifying events: a deep M7.4 strike-slip quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia (110 km depth), an M7.7 event on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia (shallow ~10 km), and one additional reviewed M6.5+ mainshock or aftershock sequence within the window. These align with typical global rates of roughly one to three such events per week, concentrated along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
USGS preliminary and reviewed solutions, cross-checked against historical weekly seismicity patterns, underpin the near-certain market odds for three. Minor model or reporting discrepancies can occur, but finalized ComCat entries rarely change enough to alter the count once reviewed.
Realistic challenges include a late magnitude downgrade of a borderline event below 6.5, discovery of an undetected shallow quake, or reclassification of aftershocks, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current monitoring density and review timelines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
बाज़ार खुला: Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$35,611समाप्ति तिथि
17 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 10–16, 2026, at 92.4% implied probability.** This positioning rests on USGS catalog data confirming three qualifying events: a deep M7.4 strike-slip quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia (110 km depth), an M7.7 event on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia (shallow ~10 km), and one additional reviewed M6.5+ mainshock or aftershock sequence within the window. These align with typical global rates of roughly one to three such events per week, concentrated along subduction zones and transform boundaries.
USGS preliminary and reviewed solutions, cross-checked against historical weekly seismicity patterns, underpin the near-certain market odds for three. Minor model or reporting discrepancies can occur, but finalized ComCat entries rarely change enough to alter the count once reviewed.
Realistic challenges include a late magnitude downgrade of a borderline event below 6.5, discovery of an undetected shallow quake, or reclassification of aftershocks, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current monitoring density and review timelines.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 10, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
वॉल्यूम
$35,611समाप्ति तिथि
17 अग, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Aug 7, 2026, 10:55 AM ETसमाधान स्रोत
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors exactly three magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide during August 10–16, 2026, at 92.4% implied probability.** This positioning rests on USGS catalog data confirming three qualifying events: a deep M7.4 strike-slip quake on August 10 near San José del Palmar, Colombia (110 km depth), an M7.7 event on August 14 offshore East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia (shallow ~10 km), and one additional reviewed M6.5+ mainshock or aftershock sequence within the window. These align with typical global rates of roughly one to three such events per week, concentrated along subduction zones and transform boundaries. USGS preliminary and reviewed solutions, cross-checked against historical weekly seismicity patterns, underpin the near-certain market odds for three. Minor model or reporting discrepancies can occur, but finalized ComCat entries rarely change enough to alter the count once reviewed. Realistic challenges include a late magnitude downgrade of a borderline event below 6.5, discovery of an undetected shallow quake, or reclassification of aftershocks, though these scenarios remain low-probability given current monitoring density and review timelines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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