Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's decision to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, a conservative northwest Iowa stronghold with strong Republican voter registration advantages, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92% implied probability. Recent GOP primary consolidations—including dropouts by state Rep. Matt Windschitl in February and Christian Schlaefer in March—have unified Republicans behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who faces no primary opposition as of early May, while Democrats navigate a contested three-way primary on June 2. Absent polling shows no competitive general election threat in this historically safe Republican seat, where Feenstra won by wide margins. Challenges would require a GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in this R-leaning district ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाIA-04 House Election Winner
IA-04 House Election Winner
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
नया
नया
3 नव, 2026
Republican Party
$4,946 वॉल्यूम
92%
Democratic Party
$4,946 वॉल्यूम
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's decision to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, a conservative northwest Iowa stronghold with strong Republican voter registration advantages, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92% implied probability. Recent GOP primary consolidations—including dropouts by state Rep. Matt Windschitl in February and Christian Schlaefer in March—have unified Republicans behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who faces no primary opposition as of early May, while Democrats navigate a contested three-way primary on June 2. Absent polling shows no competitive general election threat in this historically safe Republican seat, where Feenstra won by wide margins. Challenges would require a GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in this R-leaning district ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,892समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's decision to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, a conservative northwest Iowa stronghold with strong Republican voter registration advantages, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92% implied probability. Recent GOP primary consolidations—including dropouts by state Rep. Matt Windschitl in February and Christian Schlaefer in March—have unified Republicans behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who faces no primary opposition as of early May, while Democrats navigate a contested three-way primary on June 2. Absent polling shows no competitive general election threat in this historically safe Republican seat, where Feenstra won by wide margins. Challenges would require a GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in this R-leaning district ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$9,892समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Randy Feenstra's decision to pursue the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial race has opened IA-04, a conservative northwest Iowa stronghold with strong Republican voter registration advantages, yet trader consensus heavily favors the GOP at 92% implied probability. Recent GOP primary consolidations—including dropouts by state Rep. Matt Windschitl in February and Christian Schlaefer in March—have unified Republicans behind Trump-endorsed Chris McGowan, who faces no primary opposition as of early May, while Democrats navigate a contested three-way primary on June 2. Absent polling shows no competitive general election threat in this historically safe Republican seat, where Feenstra won by wide margins. Challenges would require a GOP scandal, nominee withdrawal, or national Democratic midterm wave boosting turnout in this R-leaning district ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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