Italy’s lower house approved the nuclear framework bill in early June 2026, sending it to the Senate with government expectations of passage before the summer recess at the end of July. As of mid-August, no Senate vote has occurred, leaving only two weeks before the August 31 deadline amid typical post-recess scheduling and competing legislative priorities under the Meloni government. The 98.9% implied probability for “No” reflects traders’ assessment that standard bicameral procedures and calendar constraints make timely final approval highly unlikely. A sudden expedited floor vote or special session convened in the final days remains a narrow pathway that could still alter the outcome before resolution.