Economists' consensus forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for preliminary release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by resilient private consumption, firm exports, and steady capital investment amid moderating inflation. This aligns closely with the market's leading 0.3–0.5% outcome at 50.0% implied probability, while the 0.6–0.8% band at 42.3% reflects trader bets on slightly stronger momentum from semiconductor demand and policy support like gasoline tax cuts. Key differentiating factors include the limited first-quarter impact of Middle East tensions versus potential downside risks to consumption if energy prices rise sharply in subsequent months, creating a tight contest between these two ranges ahead of the data print.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाJapan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026?
0.3–0.5% 50.8%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
नया
नया
19 मई, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
3%
0.0–0.2%
3%
0.3–0.5%
51%
0.6–0.8%
42%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%+
2%
0.3–0.5% 50.8%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 2.9%
नया
नया
19 मई, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,317 वॉल्यूम
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$1,404 वॉल्यूम
3%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 वॉल्यूम
3%
0.3–0.5%
$911 वॉल्यूम
51%
0.6–0.8%
$586 वॉल्यूम
42%
0.9–1.1%
$792 वॉल्यूम
31%
1.2%+
$3,375 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlEconomists' consensus forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for preliminary release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by resilient private consumption, firm exports, and steady capital investment amid moderating inflation. This aligns closely with the market's leading 0.3–0.5% outcome at 50.0% implied probability, while the 0.6–0.8% band at 42.3% reflects trader bets on slightly stronger momentum from semiconductor demand and policy support like gasoline tax cuts. Key differentiating factors include the limited first-quarter impact of Middle East tensions versus potential downside risks to consumption if energy prices rise sharply in subsequent months, creating a tight contest between these two ranges ahead of the data print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
बाज़ार खुला: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$9,743समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlEconomists' consensus forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for preliminary release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by resilient private consumption, firm exports, and steady capital investment amid moderating inflation. This aligns closely with the market's leading 0.3–0.5% outcome at 50.0% implied probability, while the 0.6–0.8% band at 42.3% reflects trader bets on slightly stronger momentum from semiconductor demand and policy support like gasoline tax cuts. Key differentiating factors include the limited first-quarter impact of Middle East tensions versus potential downside risks to consumption if energy prices rise sharply in subsequent months, creating a tight contest between these two ranges ahead of the data print.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
वॉल्यूम
$9,743समाप्ति तिथि
19 मई, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Economists' consensus forecasts for Japan's Q1 2026 GDP, scheduled for preliminary release by the Cabinet Office on May 19, center on 0.4% quarter-over-quarter growth, driven by resilient private consumption, firm exports, and steady capital investment amid moderating inflation. This aligns closely with the market's leading 0.3–0.5% outcome at 50.0% implied probability, while the 0.6–0.8% band at 42.3% reflects trader bets on slightly stronger momentum from semiconductor demand and policy support like gasoline tax cuts. Key differentiating factors include the limited first-quarter impact of Middle East tensions versus potential downside risks to consumption if energy prices rise sharply in subsequent months, creating a tight contest between these two ranges ahead of the data print.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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