Persistent subtropical high pressure over the Gulf region continues to suppress cooling, keeping Houston's overnight lows elevated above the September climatological average of ~72°F. National Weather Service and private model guidance converge on a minimum near 79–82°F for September 22, driven by high boundary-layer moisture, light winds, and limited nocturnal radiational cooling under mostly clear skies. Trader consensus clusters on the 78–81°F brackets because recent model runs show little day-to-day change and no incoming front strong enough to drop readings into the mid-70s. Minor uncertainty remains around the exact timing of any sea-breeze or convective outflow that could shave a degree or two from the low, but current conditions favor the upper end of the historical range for late-September nights.