Recent forecasts from PAGASA and multiple models show Manila under the influence of the intertropical convergence zone and localized thunderstorms on September 17, with expected overnight lows near 25–26 °C amid high humidity and extensive cloud cover. Persistent rain and overcast skies tend to limit radiational cooling, keeping minimum temperatures closer to the seasonal September average of roughly 25 °C rather than allowing sharper drops. A distant tropical depression east of the archipelago exerts little direct steering or cooling effect, while moderate El Niño conditions contribute to slightly elevated baseline warmth. Model consensus points to a narrow diurnal range, creating genuine uncertainty around whether the lowest reading will settle near 25 °C or edge into adjacent bins, which explains the tightly matched market-implied probabilities. Updated model runs and official PAGASA briefings in the next 48 hours will refine the overnight temperature trajectory.