Forecast models for Milan on August 21 indicate a shift toward cooler overnight conditions driven by thundery showers and an easterly breeze, with official guidance from sources such as the Met Office and BBC Weather pointing to lows near 15–20 °C—below typical August climatology of 17–19 °C. This setup explains the market's elevated implied probability for 13 °C or below (43 %) versus narrower bands around 16–17 °C (34 % each), as traders weigh model consensus on cloud cover and precipitation timing that could suppress the minimum. Key variables include exact shower timing and wind strength, which may alter radiative cooling; resolution hinges on the official daily minimum from Milan Linate or equivalent station data. Updated model runs and evening observations will likely clarify whether temperatures dip further or stabilize near the higher end of the range.